Oscar Predix

Oscar hosts: Anne Hathaway and James Franco

Oscar ballots are due tomorrow, and here are my predictions on who will win Sunday night. 

Check back at 8pm on Sunday!  I'll be live blogging during the ceremony.

BEST PICTURE

(Black Swan, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King's Speech, 127 Hours, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Winter's Bone)

What will win: The King’s Speech

I really enjoyed this movie, which is why back in November I predicted that it would win Best Picture.  The older contingent of Oscar voters loves the epic, feel-good movies, which is why after a loss at the Golden Globes, Harvey Weinstein put his PR machine into full gear.  It looks like it’s going to pay off. 

What should win: The Social Network
I did like The King’s Speech better, but The Social Network was a very close second for me.  I think it’s more deserving of the win because it’s one of those films that is a portrayal of the current cultural atmosphere.  In 1977, the feel-good film of the year, Rocky, topped All the President’s Men, Network and Taxi Driver, three films that reflected the sense of disillusionment the country had been feeling for some time.

BEST ACTOR

(Javier Bardem, Jeff Bridges, Jesse Eisenberg, Colin Firth, James Franco)

Who will win: Colin Firth

Who should win: Colin Firth

Bridges won last year, Bardem won three years ago, Franco is hosting, and Eisenberg is too new.  Firth has been in line for the win since his nomination last year for his role in A Single Man.

BEST ACTRESS

(Annette Bening, Nicole Kidman, Jennifer Lawrence, Natalie Portman, Michelle Williams)

Who will win: Natalie Portman

You already know how I feel about this.

Who should win: Jennifer Lawrence

Winter’s Bone won the Grand Jury Prize at Sundance in January.  The film received limited release across the country during the summer.  I absolutely loved Lawrence’s performance and I think her nomination ensures her more work, just as Carey Mulligan did after her nomination last year.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

(Christian Bale, John Hawkes, Jeremy Renner, Mark Ruffalo, Geoffrey Rush)

Who will win: Christian Bale

Who should win: Christian Bale
Just look at him.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

(Amy Adams, Helena Bonham Carter, Melissa Leo, Hailee Steinfeld, Jacki Weaver)

Who everyone thinks will win: Melissa Leo

Melissa Leo was slated to win this, and was in the process of racking up every award along the way to the Oscars.  Then for some reason, she took it upon herself to place self-promoting ads in all the trade journals, industry websites and so on.  She may still eek it out.

Who will win: Hailee Steinfeld

If Leo has turned off enough Academy voters, they may go for Steinfeld as the surprise winner of the night. 

DIRECTOR

(Darren Aronofsky, "Black Swan"; David O. Russell, "The Fighter"; Tom Hooper, "The King's Speech"; David Fincher, "The Social Network"; Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, "True Grit.")

Who will win: David Fincher

Who should win: David Fincher

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

("Biutiful," Mexico; "Dogtooth," Greece; "In a Better World," Denmark; "Incendies," Canada; "Outside the Law (Hors-la-loi)," Algeria)
Prediction: “In a Better World,” Denmark

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

(127 Hours, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Winter's Bone)
Prediction: The Social Network

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

(Another Year, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King's Speech)
Prediction: The King’s Speech

ANIMATED FILM

(How to Train Your Dragon, The Illusionist, Toy Story 3)
Prediction: Toy Story 3

God, I love this movie!  I wish it would be a contender for Best Picture.  The part at the dump where Woody, Buzz and company accept death is so intense!

ART DIRECTION

(Alice in Wonderland, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1, Inception, The King's Speech, True Grit)
Prediction: Alice in Wonderland

CINEMATOGRAPHY

(Black Swan, Inception, The King's Speech, The Social Network, True Grit)
Prediction: True Grit

The wide sweeping shots of the Great Plains are enough to make anyone want to take a cross country road trip.

FILM EDITING

(Black Swan, The Fighter, The King's Speech, 127 Hours, The Social Network)
Prediction: The Social Network

How great is the scene at the Henley-on-the-Thames regatta with “In the Hall of the Mountain King” playing?

VISUAL EFFECTS

(Alice in Wonderland, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1, Hereafter, Inception, Iron Man 2
Prediction: Inception

SOUND MIXING

(Inception, The King's Speech, Salt, The Social Network, True Grit)
Prediction: Inception

BRAAAAAAAAAHM!!!

SOUND EDITING

(Inception, Toy Story 3, Tron: Legacy, True Grit, Unstoppable)
Prediction: Inception

ORIGINAL SCORE

(How to Train Your Dragon, Inception, The King's Speech, 127 Hours, The Social Network)
Prediction: The Social Network

ORIGINAL SONG

(“Coming Home" from "Country Strong;" "I See the Light" from "Tangled;" "If I Rise" from "127 Hours;" "We Belong Together" from "Toy Story 3”)
Prediction: “We Belong Together” from Toy Story 3

COSTUME

(Alice in Wonderland, I Am Love, The King's Speech, The Tempest, True Grit)
Prediction: The King’s Speech

MAKEUP

(Barney's Version, The Way Back, The Wolfman)
Prediction: The Wolfman

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

(Exit through the Gift Shop, Gasland, Inside Job, Restrepo, Waste Land)
Prediction: Inside Job

I would love to see a surprise win for Exit through the Gift Shop just to see if Banksy reveals himself.

DOCUMENTARY SHORT FEATURE

(Killing in the Name, Poster Girl, Strangers No More, Sun Come Up, The Warriors of Qiugang)

I haven’t seen any of these

ANIMATED SHORT FILM

(Day and Night; The Gruffalo; Let's Pollute; The Lost Thing; Madagascar, a Journey Diary)

Or any of these…

LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

(The Confession, The Crush, God of Love, Na Wewe, Wish 143)

Or these.